College football in-season/NFL Draft related story example:
Three Storylines to Keep Tabs On
By Rob Rang
Senior Analyst, NFLDraftScout.com
The rookie class of 2010 hasn't gone through a full-contact practice yet, and some won't even take the field this month as late graduation dates prevent many players from joining their NFL team until June.
But already scouts are looking ahead to the 2011 NFL Draft.
National and BLESTO scouts are meeting starting next week to pare down the list of tens of thousands of senior college football players to the few thousand deserving a closer look from NFL teams. These meetings will officially begin the exhaustive 11-month process that concludes when roughly 300 players, including some underclassmen, are drafted into the NFL in April.
Over the course of the year many of the mysteries of the 2011 player pool will be solved. Among those at the top of many scouts' list are these three burning questions:
1. Is Jake Locker legit?
University of Washington quarterback Jake Locker boasts more athletic upside than Sam Bradford or Matt Stafford, the last two No. 1 overall picks. The highly touted prep prospect from tiny Ferndale (Wash.) high school could have signed with any program in the country, but elected to stay close to home. He showed flashes of brilliance in his first two seasons under Tyrone Willingham, but it was the steady gains he made last as a junior under Steve Sarkisian that has NFL scouts intrigued. Locker has a combination of arm strength, toughness and scrambling ability that have led some to compare him to a young John Elway.
Locker has yet to lead the Huskies to a winning record or earn as much as honorable mention all-conference in the Pac-10. Playing behind a leaky offensive line, Locker has yet to prove his durability. To date, his junior season was the only year in which he played in every game. He's only completed 53.4 percent of his passes in his career and has a rather pedestrian touchdown-to-interception ratio of 36-26 over 28 games.
There is no denying Locker's talent, potential or the value of the quarterback position. He enters the year as the top-rated senior prospect and the favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. To make that happen, Locker will have to match the significant leap in accuracy and in reading defenses that he showed in his first season under Sarkisian.
2. Comeback of Mark Herzlich?
Boston College outside linebacker Mark Herzlich was set to enter his senior season as the most highly touted defensive player in the country. Ndamukong Suh? Given a lower grade entering the year by NFL scouts than Herzlich, who won the ACC Defensive Player of the Year award as a junior, showcased a blend of size (6-4, 238) and agility to easily project as a 3-4 pass rusher or remain as a playmaking OLB in the 4-3 alignment.
But Herzlich never took the field in 2009 for his senior season. He was diagnosed with Ewing's Sarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer. The disease, which can be fatal, required chemotherapy and surgery, during which a steel rod was needed in his left leg to support Herzlich's femur. The treatment was effective. Herzlich was pronounced cancer free. He's been practicing with Boston College all spring in preparation for the upcoming season, though he did mostly conditioning work.
Herzlich's triumph over cancer is more than enough to make him a fan favorite. To remain a scout's favorite, however, Herzlich will have to recapture the range and instincts that helped him rack up 110 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, and six interceptions (including two returned for TDs) in 2008.
3. Is the North Carolina defense really this talented?
Butch Davis came to North Carolina with the reputation as a defensive line wizard and a strong recruiter. If his 2010 Tar Heel defense is as good on the field as the prospects are individually on paper, players won't be the only ones drawing attention from NFL teams -- Davis could get another look, too.
Davis, whose four-year run with the Cleveland Browns (2001-2004) was highlighted with the Browns making the playoffs in 2002, has assembled a collection of defensive talent that could result in a breakthrough performance in the ACC and a strong baby-blue hue on NFL draft day 2011.
NFLDraftScout.com currently ranks three UNC defensive players -- defensive tackle Marvin Austin, outside linebacker Bruce Carter and free safety Deunta Williams -- as the elite senior prospects at their respective positions. All are currently viewed as potential first-round picks. The Tar Heels have two other seniors who are potential top-100 selections -- outside linebacker Quan Sturdivant and cornerback Kendrick Burney. All five, in fact, are currently rated among NFLDraftScout.com's top 32 senior prospects.
What's more, junior defensive end Robert Quinn might be the best of the bunch. The 6-5, 264 pound All-ACC pick posted 52 tackles last year, with 19 of them behind the line of scrimmage, including 11 sacks. He is already being compared to former Tar Heel great and 2002 No. 2 overall pick Julius Peppers.
Scouts will have their hands full determining just how good each prospect might be at the next level. With so much talent on the field, it becomes easy for individual strengths to be highlighted -- and their relative weaknesses to be hidden or blurred.
The immediate NFL success experienced by many members (Brian Cushing, Clay Mathews, Rey Maualuga, Kaluka Maiava) of the 2008 Southern Cal defense -- the last defensive unit to earn this many top grades -- perhaps the Tar Heels won't be downgraded for having a strong supporting cast but rather each will be graded on his own merit.
NFL Draft period story example:
UNDERCLASSMEN TRACKER
By Chad Reuter
Senior Analyst
NFLDraftScout.com
An average class of elite senior talent and fears about future rookie contract limits could push a record number of juniors and redshirt sophomores into the 2010 NFL Draft mix by the Jan. 15 deadline for underclassmen to announce.
Fifteen underclassmen went in the first round in 2009, tying the record shared with the 2004 draft. The 23 juniors and third-year sophomores picked in the top two rounds last April, however, set the league record.
Every underclassman deciding whether or not to come out early has a lot of variables to consider: from coaching situations to family considerations to where the NFL Advisory Committee says they might be selected.
Below is a list of top underclassmen who have announced their decision to forgo their remaining eligibility or return to school. Players who have declared they are headed to the NFL can still change their mind, as they have 72 hours after the deadline to withdraw their names.
DECLARING FOR DRAFT
QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame (6-3, 217, 4.74 40-yard dash)
NFLDraftScout.com projection: Top 10
The NFL is a quarterback league, and Clausen has the requisite intelligence, arm strength and fiery leadership most teams like in their signal caller. Though Charlie Weis' reign in South Bend wasn't as successful as he'd hoped, the former Patriots offensive coordinator knows how to handle quarterbacks. Clausen isn't perfect - no college quarterback is a finished product. But in a weak quarterback class, he's as good as it gets.
QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma (6-4, 223, 4.72)
Projection: Top 10
Bradford was considered a sure-fire top five pick entering the fall because of his poise and accuracy. During his sophomore season, scouts were clamoring that they hadn't charted a player so accurate in 10-15 years. But his lanky frame and lost 2009 season brings Bradford's durability into question. NFL scouts are also starting to wonder if his 2007-08 success was a product of a more or less pro offensive line taking on college defenders. Still, teams in first half of the first round needing a quarterback won't pass on his talent, especially if his medical report checks out and he performs well at his personal workout before the draft.
DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma (6-4, 298, 5.05)
Projection: Top 10
McCoy could have come out as a redshirt sophomore and been a first-round pick, but returning to the Sooners only increased his value. Few 300-pound players are as active throughout the game as McCoy, who could play the three-technique in a four-front man or end in a 3-4 scheme, where he often lines up in the Oklahoma defense. His athleticism and versatility give him top 10 value.
WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (6-2, 220, 4.58)
Projection: Early-to-mid first round
Bryant's suspension for lying to NCAA investigators shouldn't hurt his draft status too much, especially when teams needing a big-bodied receiver look at his film. He isn't expected to run a sub-4.5 40 at the Combine, but he ran away from many Big 12 corners and his body control and huge hands put him in a class by himself.
WR Golden Tate, Notre Dame (5-11, 195, 4.44)
Projection: Mid-first round
The departures of Clausen and Weis made Tate's decision easy. The All-American has ascended from a converted running back to putting up 1,496 receiving yards and 15 scores this season. As tough to bring down after the catch as any receiver in the country, his superior hands and speed reminds many scouts of Carolina Pro Bowl receiver Steve Smith.
OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers (6-6, 325, 5.28)
Projection: Mid-late first round
Many project Davis as a top 10-12 pick because of his combination of size (6-6, 330) and athleticism. At times he looks like a dominant tackle, but many teams consider him an underachiever who lacks consistency and maturity. Still, his physical tools will make him far too tempting to drop out of the first round.
TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma (6-6, 258, 4.78)
Projection: Late first/early second round
The All-American tight end had Sooners coach Bob Stoops announce his intention to leave school despite injuring his left knee in preseason practice. A probable first-round pick after the 2008 season because of his 6-6, 260-pound frame, receiving and blocking skills, Gresham decided not to tempt fate with another injury in 2010, and turned down his redshirt. Like Bradford, as long as he checks out medically he should be a top 50 pick.
OT Bruce Campbell, Maryland (6-7, 310, 4.97)
Projection: Late first/early second round
A big body with a lot of potential, the 6-7, 310-pound left tackle decided to leave Maryland despite starting only 17 games in his three years there due to injury and inconsistency. Without question Campbell has the athletic ability to succeed at the next level, but will teams be wary of his maturity and lack of experience?
WR Arrelious Benn, Illinois (6-2, 220, 4.50)
Projection: Late first/early second round)
A disappointing junior season in which he saw his receiving yardage drop from 1,044 in 2008 to 490 didn't stop "Rejus" from throwing his name into the hat. Scouts are aware that his quarterback play was inconsistent, to say the least. Although not expected to run one of the top 40s at the Combine, his size, strong running and return ability should earn him a spot in the top 50.
CB Donovan Warren, Michigan (6-0, 185, 4.42)
Projection: Late first/early second round
Stating the obvious to anyone who has seen the Michigan corner play in recent years, Warren said he was confident in his ability to play at the next level. The fact the Wolverines aren't lighting the world on fire right now probably had something to do with the decision, as well. Warren has the requisite speed and aggressiveness to start on the edge in the NFL. A weak senior class and first-second round projection from the league made the decision easy for the second-team All-Big Ten pick.
RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State (5-11, 220, 4.49)
Projection: Second round
After finishing among the NCAA leaders with 1,808 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns in his junior year, including 144 yards and two scores against Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl, Mathews thought he had accomplished as much as he could at the college level. He is a powerful runner with all of the physical tools to be a successful NFL back, and even mixes it up in pass protection. But the devaluation of running backs, his lack of vision as a runner and inconsistent receiving hands may prevent him from being selected in the first round.
WR Mike Williams, Syracuse (6-2, 212, 4.49)
Projection: Second round
Physically, Williams could be a first-round pick because of his size, speed, body control and elusiveness after the catch. But his maturity issues can't be overlooked. Williams missed the 2008 season due to academics, returned to the team after a year at a community college, then quit in October rather than being suspended for an off-field issue. Despite playing in only seven games in 2009, he led the Orangemen with 49 catches for 746 yards and six touchdowns. If he can convince teams at the Combine that he's not a character risk, a team will draft him earlier than expected.
WR Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas (6-3, 200, 4.62)
Projection: Mid-second/early third round
Briscoe's a bit under the radar because of the other prolific offenses in the Big 12, the Jayhawks' seven-game losing streak and the controversy surrounding departed coach Mark Mangino. But coaches still voted Briscoe first-team all-conference after he made 84 receptions for 1,337 yards and nine touchdowns this season. His size and hands grab scouts' attention, but Briscoe must prove he has the top-end speed and route-running skills to earn a top 50 selection.
STAYING IN SCHOOL
QB Jake Locker, Washington (6-3, 226, 4.57)
Projection: Top 10
NFL scouts watched the progression of Locker under offensive guru Steve Sarkisian this season. And although he still is raw in some ways, any team in the top 10 needing a quarterback would have jumped at Locker because of his size, athleticism, arm strength and upside as a pocket passer. But Locker took the other path, deciding to return to the Huskies for another season so he can improve his game under Sarkisian before heading to the next level.
OLB Bruce Carter, North Carolina (6-3, 225, 4.57)
Projection: Mid-first round
Though his size and speed could make him the top linebacker off the board, Carter stated a desire to get his degree before heading to the NFL. If he becomes an all-around player for a talented North Carolina team potentially competing for the ACC title next season, a spot in the top 10 in 2011 seems likely.
DT Allen Bailey, Miami (Fla.) (6-4, 288, 4.79)
Mid-first/early second round
Bailey's athleticism and versatility would have been greatly appreciated with so many teams either using the 3-4 as a base scheme or a change-up look. But another first-team All-ACC year in 2010 (11 TFL, seven sacks in '09) could put Bailey in the top 10.
CB Dominique Franks, Oklahoma (6-0, 192, 4.48)
Projection: Late first/early second round
The first-team All-Big 12 pick (four interceptions) decided to make his decision early, electing to stay for his final season at Norman. Although he possesses the size and speed NFL teams want at cornerback, he can be undisciplined at times. Another season of experience at the position could help his draft stock.
DT Adrian Taylor, Oklahoma (6-4, 303, 4.94)
Projection: Second round
Taylor had an honorable mention All-Big 12 season in 2009, making 7.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks playing next to Gerald McCoy. He'll be the star of the show in 2010, using his quickness and strength to climb up the defensive tackle ladder with McCoy and others leaving early to join the NFL.
FB Stanley Havili, USC (6-1, 230, 4.59)
Projection: Second round)
The potential top 50 pick because of his physical blocking and very good receiving ability decided to return for his senior year after missing time with a shoulder injury.
DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa (6-3, 282, 4.83)
Projection: Second-third round
Clayborn earned first-team All-Big Ten honors with 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in a breakout season for the Hawkeyes. His strength and active hands on the line made him a terror for opponents and a favorite among Midwest scouts. A strong defensive end class may have pushed him down boards, however, so he decided to enjoy his senior year in Iowa City before moving on.
|
